China's export to resume growth in Q4: institutional forecasts

The latest forecasts by a number of Chinese and foreign institutions said China's export was likely to resume growth in the fourth quarter though the July figures published on Tuesday were still gloom.

The Nomura Securities said the US economy showed signs of recovery, the real estate sector was warming up and the record declining rate of inventories in the first half year laid a foundation for a sharp rebound in the second half year.

It forecasts the longest and most serious recession since the 1930s might have drawn to a close.

The Shenyin and Wanguo Securities said China's export might recover in the second half due to the recovery of the US economy and the fact that China's stimulus package was gradually working on the real economy, boosting private investment and putting forward consumption.

It said as inventories declined in the first half year, the United States would increase stockpiles in the second half year, which will be a good chance for Chinese exports. China's other main export destinations, such as Europe, Japan and the Republic of Korea, also showed signs of recovery and might demand more Chinese exports.

The Changjiang Securities said the US unemployment rate had went down, indicating the economic recession might have come to an end. The US Department of Labor said the US unemployment rate unexpectedly fell 0.1 percent to 9.4 percent in July.

It said Chinese export was affected by seasonal factors and would be relatively active in the months of April, July, September and November. Export in the fourth quarter of 2008 was relatively low, so it was likely that the year-on-year growth could turn positive in the fourth quarter this year.

But Shenyin and Wanguo Securities warned that export companies should be cautious on the continuity of export recovery.

The Nomura Securities also said China's export might see slow recovery, as western countries, especially the United States, might fix their consumption patterns after the global downturn and thus it was hard for China to resume the export level before the global downturn.